Article Recommendation: "Can Pakistan Play a Role in Regime Change in Afghanistan?" for RUSI, by Masom Jan Masomy

Piotr Pietrzak
Jan 12
2 min read

The article argues that although Pakistan has historically played an interventionist role in Afghanistan, it no longer has the capacity or regional support to engineer regime change against the Taliban today.

Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan sharply deteriorated after military clashes in October 2025, the suspension of trade, and a rise in attacks by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) inside Pakistan. While Pakistan demands that Kabul curb TTP activities, the Taliban-led Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan rejects responsibility. Amid failed mediation efforts, speculation has emerged about Pakistan seeking regime change by engaging Taliban opponents such as the National Resistance Front.

Historically, Pakistan exerted strong influence in Afghanistan—from supporting Mujahideen factions during the Soviet war, backing the Taliban in the 1990s, to playing a double game during the US-led war after 9/11. The Taliban’s return to power in 2021 was welcomed in Islamabad as a strategic victory, particularly for reducing Indian influence and dismantling Western-backed Afghan institutions.

However, the author contends that today’s realities are fundamentally different from the 1990s. Afghan opposition groups lack public support, resources, and external backing, while most Afghan political leaders—Pashtun and non-Pashtun alike—favor dialogue over armed संघर्ष. Public Afghan sentiment is strongly against Pakistani military intervention, even among critics of the Taliban.

Pakistan itself faces deep internal challenges, including political instability, economic crisis, and serious security threats from TTP and Baloch separatists. At the same time, strained relations with India and shifting regional geopolitics limit Pakistan’s room for maneuver. Regional powers such as Russia, Iran, India, and Central Asian states now prefer engagement with the Taliban rather than destabilization.

The article concludes that regime change in Afghanistan is neither feasible nor desirable for Pakistan or the wider region. Instead, Pakistan should abandon interventionist policies and align with regional and international consensus by supporting stability in Afghanistan through economic cooperation and diplomatic engagement, which would better serve both Afghan and Pakistani security interests.